The following is a guest blog from UK-based Neil McIntosh, Globalocity‘s recent podcast guest. You can listen to our Brexit podcast with Neil here.
Like the thread on the sweater or jumper that you pull that starts to unravel the whole garment, the seemingly simple process of triggering Article 50 — the process that formally triggers Brexit — may lead Britain to unexpected places.
The June 23rd EU membership Referendum is what many think when they hear “Brexit,” but actually Brexit doesn’t start until the U.K. gives formal notice to the European Union that it intends to leave. And there has been much comment on how and when Article 50 will be triggered.
This is important for several reasons. First, when Article 50 is triggered, it establishes a maximum 2-year deadline by which separation negotiations need to have completed. Secondly — and much more challenging — is how the Article 50 will be triggered and under whose authority……
This second point is now being legally challenged in the UK Supreme Court. Prime Minister Theresa May took the position that it did not need legislative approval to invoke Article 50. Others disagreed, and brought suit, and the UK High Court ruled that Parliament must approve this. May’s Government has appealed this ruling; the Appeal will be heard in December 2016 with a verdict due in January 2017.
It is also the subject of huge political debate in both Houses of Parliament. The lower house (The Commons) is broadly in agreement that Article 50 should be triggered, based on the will of the electorate. The upper house (The Lords), who almost unanimously voted to remain in the EU in contrast–well, they are set to make the triggering of Article 50 very difficult.
This raises the prospect of a Parliamentary crisis, with the Government and The Commons efforts to trigger Article 50 being blocked by The Lords. The Lords can do this, as constitutional procedure requires them to review, amend and finally approve all such acts of Parliament which triggering Article 50 is most likely to become.
One of the first acts following the triggering of Article 50 is the UK Governments Great Repeal Act which will sever legal links with the European Courts therefore stopping future EU laws applying in the UK. This will also buy the UK time to assess, adopt, amend or reject any current EU laws making them UK laws.
However, this Repeal Act is also being challenged by The Lords and also the Scottish Parliament in terms of its contents and the timing of the passing of the Act into UK law.
Finally there is yet another challenge about to enter The UK Law Courts. Some Business Leaders and Politicians are challenging the Government on the “definition” of leaving the EU. Some are challenging whether that means the Single Market, the Customs Union also known as the European Economic Area (EEA) or both. In simplistic Terms the EU is the Political, Legal, Social and Economic union whereas the EEA is simply the “borderless” free trade zone which also includes Norway and Switzerland.
Any one of these attempts to block the triggering of Article 50 could result in a Public Revolt, creating similar scene of protest as those seen following Donald Trump’s election victory. At the very least, May’s proposal to exercise Article 50 in March/April of 2017 could get pushed back.
The Government, if blocked to such as extent, may be forced to call a General Election to re-enforce their mandate and drive through the will of the people.
This obviously risks the prospect of the Conservatives and Theresa May not being returned to power and………
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